According to a 2021 paper published in the scientific journal Nature Geoscience, the Atlantic Gulf Stream, a major climate-regulating oceanic current that plays a crucial role in redistributing heat throughout the Earth’s climate system, is now at its weakest in over 1,600 years. The cause? Increasingly warm global temperatures are directly related to the impact of human-induced climate change, a phenomenon that has already been long predicted by climate scientists. What does this slowdown of the Atlantic Ocean circulation mean for the future of our climate and how can we reverse this?

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The findings are the latest setback in an already mounting global climate crisis, with experts worrying that the slowdown in ocean current circulation could further aggravate the adverse effects of climate change, from rising sea levels in the East Coast of the United States to an increase in extreme weather conditions in Europe, North America and North Africa such as heatwaves, drought, intense winter storms, and severe flooding.

The Gulf Stream, also known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is a large circulation of ocean currents transporting warm water from the tropics into the North Atlantic Ocean. The system is part of a global pattern called thermohaline circulation, or what scientists refer to as the “great ocean conveyor belt,” a constantly moving system of deep-ocean water driven by differences in temperature and salinity.   

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This natural process of global ocean current circulation helps ensure the Earth’s oceans remain continually mixed and that heat and energy are evenly distributed, which, in turn, directly affect the climate humans live in today. Without this constant flow of current circulation, regional temperatures would become more extreme – intense heat near the equator and freezing in the poles – making less land on Earth habitable.   

Several climate models have indicated the AMOC may further weaken over the course of this century as greenhouse gas emissions continue to climb. A weakening AMOC can cause a decrease in the ocean’s effectiveness in absorbing atmospheric carbon dioxide, leading to a higher amount of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. Scientists warn that should increasing temperatures persist, the AMOC could reduce by at least 34% to 45% and reach a critical “breaking point” by the year 2100, at which the circulation system could become “permanently unstable.” 

However, new studies have shown that one particular phenomenon could help delay the recent slowdown of current circulation in the Atlantic Ocean.   

According to researchers from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego, rising warm temperatures in the Indian Ocean can help stall the slowdown of ocean circulation and re-strengthen the AMOC. Such warming in the Indian Ocean can produce additional precipitation, which, consequently, extracts more air from other regions of the world, including the Atlantic Ocean. 

The amount of precipitation in the Indian Ocean will subsequently result in less precipitation in the Atlantic, leading to higher levels of water salinity within the tropical areas of the ocean. This saline water, which travels north through the AMOC, will turn cold and sink at a faster rate than normal, kickstarting an intensification in current circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. 

This intensification of ocean circulation would then have a direct impact on climate in nearby regions such as Europe, where the heat carried northwards helps keep the Atlantic Ocean warmer during the winter, warming surrounding countries as a result. If ocean currents were to come to a complete stop, however, Europe’s average temperature may cool by a staggering 5 to 10 degrees Celsius.     

Still, if the warming of other major tropical oceans, including the Pacific, overtakes that of the Atlantic, this intensification in circulation for the AMOC may decrease altogether. 

While a complete dissolution of the AMOC system is highly unlikely, the further slowdown of ocean current circulation is likely to continue. Given this uncertain future, monitoring existing global ocean circulation patterns remains a key aspect in tackling climate change. Numerical models are essential tools in studying ocean circulation, but observations through long-term measurements of precise circulation strength are heavily needed.

In addition, greater research into the potential weather impacts of an AMOC slowdown and its associated sea surface temperature patterns must be carried out. Climate scientists may have pointed out the Atlantic’s AMOC “will not collapse anytime soon”, but its continuing slowdown is something that definitely should not be taken lightly in the ongoing global push for greater climate action.

Featured image: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center/Flickr

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More than a month after Super Typhoon Rai (Odette) pummelled the Philippines with torrential rain, raging floodwaters, storm surges and fierce winds, relief teams have become increasingly concerned by a “worsening humanitarian situation” faced by vulnerable, high-risk communities in the country’s worst affected areas, with hundreds of thousands of civilians still without access to adequate shelter, food, clean water, and protection support following the trail of catastrophic devastation wrought by one of 2021’s deadliest natural disasters.   

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Rai, the fifteenth and strongest typhoon to strike the Philippines in 2021, tore through the archipelagic nation’s southern and central islands from December 16 to 17 as a powerful Category 5 storm – ripping off roofs, toppling trees, and knocking out power as residents were preparing to gather for Christmas holiday celebrations. It made nine landfalls across the provinces of Surigao del Norte, Bohol, Cebu, Dinagat Islands, Southern Leyte, Negros Oriental and Palawan, packing gusts of up to 270 km/h (168 mph) and maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h (121 mph) near the centre. 

Official government reports have placed the death toll at 406, with 78 still missing. At least 680,000 people have lost their homes or main source of income, in a storm some relief teams have compared to 2013’s Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) – which left 7,300 people dead and four million homeless in its wake.   

But more than a month on, the situation on the ground remains dire for many disaster-ravaged communities and towns. Relief teams say recovery efforts could take as long as six months, with the current supply of humanitarian aid largely insufficient in helping the hardest-hit regions rebuild their livelihoods. 

“Humanitarian aid covers the immediate need of what people need to survive, but [we also need support] for the mid and long-term recovery,” Jermaine Baltazar Bayas, Oxfam’s humanitarian lead in Asia, told Climate Home News. “This has to be embedded in regions’ development programmes and there has to be a focus on protecting assets and helping people restart their livelihoods.”

Bayas’ comments come as survivors of Rai’s onslaught grow increasingly frustrated with the Philippine government’s delayed response in providing aid, with some residents begging off streets for scraps of food in the worst affected towns as severed power, communication lines and record-high COVID-19 cases continue to hamper relief efforts for many hard to reach areas.   

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) has also warned of a “mounting health crisis” in many impoverished regions, after nine people were reported to have died in the Dinagat Islands and neighbouring Siargao due to dehydration caused by diarrhoea amid irregular water supply and rising food shortages, according to the Philippine health department’s regional office.

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In response to the many challenges faced by ongoing recovery efforts, the United Nations earlier this month launched an emergency appeal of $107 million in aid to assist more than half a million displaced Filipinos, with the World Food Programme (WFP), the food-assistance branch of the United Nations, having requested $25 million of the appeal to cover for food, telecommunications, and logistical support. 

“The situation, of course, is being worsened now because we have continued rains,” says World Food Programme Philippines Country Director Brenda Barton. “We have communities that cannot go into houses and are already in evacuation centres. And COVID-19, just like in other parts of the world, is ripping through the Philippines’ highly dense population,” she added, highlighting communities’ increased worries about nutrition emergencies setting in. 

Amid its hasty relief efforts to deliver much-needed supplies, the United Nations noted that the extent of the damage caused by Rai was “badly underestimated” in its initial assessments, with the destruction being far worse than initially anticipated. 

“One month since the first landfall of Super Typhoon Rai we realise that we have badly underestimated the scale of devastation,” says Gustavo Gonzalez, the United Nations Resident Coordinator in the Philippines. “This is a very fragile region.”

As the Philippines struggles to pick up the pieces, many distraught residents are now left to yet again grapple with a familiar but harsh, painful reality. Communities left reeling by Rai are now left to wonder – what happens now? In order to avoid Rai from becoming a “forgotten crisis” for the typhoon-prone Southeast Asian nation, countries most responsible for the worsening impacts of climate change must be held accountable for the mounting costs of natural disasters elsewhere.    

The unusual time and strength in which Typhoon Rai struck the Philippines is a grim call to action towards an escalating global climate crisis and should prompt government authorities, if not already, to further invest in resources that will better equip homes in vulnerable coastal communities exposed to the risk of more intensifying storms that could hit the region in the coming years. Before it’s too late.        

Featured image by: Wikimedia Commons

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Climate scientists have issued stark warnings over the widespread risk of more extreme weather events, after rain fell on the highest peak of the Greenland ice sheet for the first time on record in August. 

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The semi-autonomous Danish territory, known for its below-freezing temperatures and polar climate, saw above-freezing temperatures and wet snow for the third time in less than a decade, as seven billion tonnes of rain poured across the island for three consecutive days – the heaviest since records began in 1950. 

The US Snow and Ice Data Centre (​​NSIDC) said rain was observed for “several hours” on August 14 at a measurement site 3,216 metres (10,551 feet) above the ice sheet. By August 15, the amount of ice lost was at least seven times higher than the usual daily average for that time of year. 

“This is an extreme event as it may never have happened before,” Martin Stendel, a researcher at the Danish Meteorological Institute, told AFP. “It’s probable that this is a sign of global warming.” 

Second in size only to the Antarctic ice sheets, 80% of Greenland is ice-capped. As global heat waves intensify and air temperatures over the ice rise, the rate of ice loss further accelerates.

In July 2019, a high-pressure system that caused a blistering heat wave across Europe turned over half of the surface of the Greenland ice sheet to slush, after combining with another high-pressure system from the Arctic that had settled over Greenland. Such heat waves were particularly impactful as they arrived after mild, dry winter and spring seasons that primed the ice sheet to melt. 

When solar radiation hits snow and ice, approximately 90% of it is reflected back out to space. As more snow and ice melt, the ocean and land absorb more incoming solar radiation, releasing more heat back into the atmosphere, enhancing the severity of the effects of global warming as a result.

Record-breaking rainfall is now the latest in a string of extreme weather events to hit the North Atlantic island in recent months, yet another worrying signal of climate change’s growing threat to the planet. 

In July, Greenland’s ice sheet experienced a “massive melting event” during a heat wave that saw temperatures soar 10 degrees above seasonal norms, losing at least 8.5 billion tonnes of surface mass in a single day – enough to submerge the entire US state of Florida in five centimetres of water. 

“Greenland, like the rest of the world, is warming rapidly,” says Ted Scambos, a senior glaciologist at the University of Colorado Boulder in an interview with The Washington Post. 

“We now see three melting events in a decade in Greenland – and before 1990, that only happened about once every 150 years. Now we have rainfall, in an area where rain never fell,” he explained, adding how such an event would be difficult to imagine without the influence of climate change. Scientists have warned should the entire Greenland ice sheet melt, it would lead to a global sea level rise of about 6 metres (20 feet). 

“What’s going on is not simply a warm decade or two in a wandering climate pattern,” Scambos said. “This is unprecedented.”

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Within a month after rainfall was recorded, the remnants of Hurricane Larry – a powerful tropical storm that remained intact so far north, pummelled eastern Greenland with a rare winter blizzard triggering heavy snowfall of up to 18 inches, capping off a season of severe climate events in the region. 

In response to rapid changes in weather patterns and extreme weather events, Greenland’s government in July announced it would scrap all plans for future oil exploration on environmental grounds, ​​ending a 50-year ambition to become an oil-producing nation. The socialist-led government, in office since April, has placed climate change mitigation at the centre of its legislative agenda. 

In a statement, the government said it decided to “cease issuing new licenses for oil and gas exploration,” in a step taken “for the sake of our nature, our fisheries, our tourism industry, and to focus our business on sustainable potentials.” 

“The future belongs to renewable energy, and in that respect we have much more to gain,” it added. “We want to take co-responsibility for combatting the global climate crisis.”

As the COP26 climate summit looms, Greenland’s decision to suspend oil exploration is one that other nations must boldly follow suit, if not already. European nations like France and Spain, whose governments’ have already enacted laws banning oil and gas production in all its territories by 2040 and 2042 respectively, present the dire need for world leaders to continue implementing similar hardline policies and initiatives to confront the escalating environmental crisis.   

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The 2015 Paris Agreement saw 196 world leaders collectively vow for greater action on climate change mitigation through greenhouse gas reduction targets, with countries committing to annual Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), outlining national strategies for reducing their respective share of planet-warming emissions by 2030.   Now, more than five years on, some would say little to no progress has been made, with experts saying the accords are inadequate in preventing global temperatures from rising 1.5 degrees Celsius. Climate change remains one of the biggest threats to global security, even as nations continue to ramp up their near and long-term targets in combating the escalating environmental crisis. But which countries currently boast the most ambitious emission reduction targets, and what exactly do they hope to achieve between now, 2030 and beyond?

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Which Nations Have the Most Ambitious Goals for Climate Action?

The United States

The US propelled itself to one of the most ambitious climate targets yet, following President Joe Biden’s recent announcement of the country’s new goal to slash economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions to 50% below 2005 levels by 2030. These latest targets, announced prior to Biden’s virtual climate summit of more than 40 world leaders, would be the strongest contribution by any major economy in regards to the amount of carbon to be cut. 

With US emissions currently 20% below 2005 levels – a number likely to increase post-COVID economic recovery – the country may experience the fastest economic and social change among other major greenhouse gas emitters due to decarbonisation throughout the next decade. The US still has much work to do, however, as its greenhouse gas emissions remain among the highest globally and are likely to stay that way even if the 2030 target is met. The country is second only to China as the largest emitter of carbon globally. 

Nationwide efforts against the climate crisis were categorised as “critically insufficient” last year according to Climate Action Tracker (CAT), following the Trump administration’s repeated climate antagonism and withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. 

The United Kingdom

Despite Biden’s target being one of the more aggressive near-term goals among the US’s wealthy, industrialised counterparts, such targets still fall short compared to what regions such as the UK and the European Union have already pledged. 

The UK government in April announced that it will set the “world’s most ambitious climate change target”, in which the country aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by a whopping 78% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels. The goal took effect in late June after being put out as part of the UK’s sixth carbon budget in December 2020, although many environmentalists were quick to point out the government’s consistent failures to deliver on previous targets set by its independent Climate Change Committee (CCC). 

Advised by the CCC, this latest goal seeks to restrict the total amount of emissions over a five-year period. This year’s targets cover the country’s share of international aviation and shipping, after it was excluded from previous carbon budgets. 

Despite the UK being able to cut its emissions by 44% between 1990 and 2018, the British Parliament made the declaration of a “climate emergency” in 2019. 

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Table 1: Nations with the most ambitious climate commitments. Source: Quartz

The European Union (EU)

 Much like the UK, the EU has also recently adopted an ambitious set of targets in a bid to curb the climate threat. In a new law implemented by the EU Parliament, the 27-member bloc has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels, though the parliament has made attempts to push for an even higher target of 60%. 

The latest target, announced prior to Biden’s virtual climate summit in April, sets a limit on the total levels of carbon dioxide removal that count towards the 2030 target, helping to ensure member states work actively to lower emissions. Moreover, the EU Commission has also announced a new collection of climate laws last month to support the union’s long-term targets. 

The EU constitutes around a fifth of the world’s economy and was the third largest emitter of carbon emissions in 2019, accounting for 9% of global carbon dioxide emissions. The bloc has repeatedly stressed climate change as a key issue for Europe, stating its commitment to become the first “climate neutral continent” by 2050. 

Japan

Japan’s government raised the bar on their climate ambitions in April, strengthening their emission reduction targets to 45% from 2013 levels by 2030. Prior to this, the country’s target stood at 26%. The target was initially set for a 40% reduction before being bumped up to 45% soon after.

Since taking over from Shinzō Abe, current Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has further emphasised the dire need for greater climate action, pledging net-zero emissions by 2050.  According to Climate Change Tracker (CAT), a 60% reduction would be “challenging” for the East Asian nation, but imperative if it wants to align with the targets set within the Paris Agreement. 

In the past year, the country’s government was heavily criticised for its “disappointing” lack of ambition after it resisted international pressure to increase its 2030 climate goals. 

Featured image by: Flickr

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For too long, methane has often been left out of the climate conversation. In fact, it is one of the many causes of climate change, with levels of atmospheric methane now at an all-time high since the 1980s despite the economic slowdown from COVID-19, according to preliminary estimates by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in April 2020. But even as a growing number of climate scientists, experts, and policymakers recognise the dire need to reduce methane emissions as a crucial aspect in preventing a widespread environmental catastrophe, recent findings have shown that there is no better time to act than the present. A recently published study has indicated that implementing rapid, full-scale efforts to cut down global methane emissions using existing technologies could slash such emissions in half and slow the current rate of Earth’s climate warming by as much as 30% by 2030.  

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The study, published in the Environmental Research Letters journal, which said that such efforts would require a swift reduction in emissions from the oil and gas industry, large-scale agriculture, and other human sources, came shortly before a new UN-backed report that noted “urgent steps” are necessary to reduce human-produced methane emissions by 45% this decade – all of which could help to avoid warming of at least 0.3˚C by 2045, well within the target goals set by the Paris Agreement of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5˚C (2.7˚F) above pre-industrial levels. 

Methane is 84 times more powerful at trapping heat than carbon dioxide over a 20-year span, and is a vital component in the development of a dangerous air pollutant known as ground-level ozone (or smog). But even as 25% of current global warming is caused by human-induced methane emissions, it takes only a decade for methane to break down within the Earth’s atmosphere – as opposed to carbon dioxide, which lingers in the air for centuries.

The new study from Environmental Research Letters puts forth a range of solutions that, if executed over the coming decade, could help decrease predicted 2030 methane emissions by half with no net cost. 

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Other workable solutions in the global effort to reduce methane emissions involve modifying agricultural practices. Methane from the agricultural sector would be the most difficult area for technical improvements, as the sector itself has a global abatement potential (GAP) of 28 percent at the baseline – the lowest total reduction potential amongst other sectors such as municipal solid waste, coal mining, and wastewater, according to the Global Methane Initiative.    

Rice farming’s footprint could decrease quicker if farmers utilised alternative hybrids, refined water management systems, and added new materials to enrich soil properties. Such processes could result in avoiding as much as 335 million metric tons (370 million tons) worth of methane emissions by 2050. 

Researchers have found great potential in the area of improving waste management for reducing methane emissions, and estimate that by separating refuse according to source, implementing more effective recycling practices and schemes to capture energy from rotting waste, as well as banning organic waste in landfills, 778 million metric tons (858 million tons) of emitted methane could be avoided between now and 2050. 

Working to slash methane emissions is a vital, albeit overlooked, way to slow global warming – and is one that cannot afford to be missed. “Acting now and moving quickly to cut methane emissions is essential,” says the lead author of the Environmental Research Letters study, Dr. Ilissa Ocko, adding that the issue of methane must be addressed directly and that even a “modest delay would mean missing out on significant climate benefits.” 

Powerful nations such as the US, the world’s largest producer of oil and gas, must also step up and demonstrate their ability to lead the way in reducing methane emissions when tackling the escalating climate threat. US President Joe Biden has since announced plans to limit emissions from the oil and gas industry, along with other newly implemented initiatives through the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in the coming years to reach his administration’s long-term climate goals. 

Slowing the ongoing rate of global warming would help curb the most extreme of weather phenomena impacting people around the world today, namely wildfires, crop losses, hurricanes and rising sea levels. 

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With US-China relations at their lowest point in thirty years, all eyes are now on new US president Joe Biden to act swiftly on restoring a climate change partnership, following a tumultuous four years which saw numerous international disputes further aggravate tensions between the world’s two largest economies. 

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This comes after a report by the UN Environmental Programme in December last year indicated that despite a reduction in carbon emissions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the world was still on track for a rise in temperature of 3˚C – well beyond the 1.5˚C target set in the Paris Climate Agreement. 

Prior to Donald Trump withdrawing the US from the agreement in 2017, collaboration with China was crucial in efforts to develop climate sustainability under the Obama administration. 

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Now, just hours after being sworn in as president, Biden has since announced the US has rejoined the climate accord. But the Trump administration’s rollbacks of over 100 climate policies could prove to be more harmful in the long-run than thought, with US greenhouse gas emissions projected to be 3% higher by 2030 than with the policies still in place.         

What’s more, despite a 12% decline in US carbon dioxide emissions from 2005 to 2018, China’s emission rate has since climbed after surpassing the US’ in 2005 – now accounting for 28% of global carbon emissions as of 2020. 

But even with a new leader amidst heightening tensions, what areas must be addressed to mend a once seemingly fruitful climate partnership?   

Watch: Tackling climate change is a “top priority” for Biden. But what exactly is his plan?    

According to Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, Biden’s and Xi’s pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and 2060 respectively have already set the stage for hopes of restoring bilateral talks on the climate front, with practical steps for potential cooperation being outlined in three main categories. 

The first is re-establishing dedication to “global climate governance.” Being the world’s greatest powers means the US and China must lead by example, following the goals put forth by the Paris Agreement of mid-century carbon neutrality and attaining a 1.5˚C scenario. Working together to lead cooperation in global forums such as G20 to address issues where they do not necessarily see eye to eye, for example accelerating a timeline on eradicating fossil fuel subsidies and enhanced data accessibility, is vital in restoring climate relations.                

The second area involves rebuilding trust for future bilateral cooperation. With many daunting crises at hand, Biden faces a challenging road ahead as US president. But even as his stance on climate change is expected to mount pressure on China’s massive and heavily criticised “Belt and Road” infrastructure initiative, regaining trust is essential for achieving US-China mid-century targets in areas like zero-emission vehicles, construction and electrification. 

The third category, supporting sub-national leadership on climate action, is also critical in the process of revamping US-China collaboration. 

Sub-national diplomacy in climate governance refers to state, provincial or local leaders asserting political authority within foreign affairs. Vertically integrated cooperation amongst both national and sub-national governments is necessary for success in such leadership. To do this, both countries must enhance support for sub-national and non-state actors, a priority already evident throughout the Obama and Trump administrations.             

As the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, the US and China remain the most vulnerable to the rapidly escalating climate threat. Though by no means easy, finding ways to work with China should be at the top of the US climate agenda. Joe Biden’s ambition of becoming a “climate president” would then depend largely on repairing a long-standing relationship with its superpower counterpart, and reimposing environmental policies both sides can willingly get behind.  

Featured image by: Flickr 

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