Since the Industrial Revolution, fossil fuel technologies have been driving economic growth, so reducing emissions may appear to threaten developing countries’ progress, but to meet the Paris target, this is exactly what needs to happen. Is there a way for developing countries to prosper without increasing their emissions? 

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How Do Developing Countries Contribute to Climate Change?

A study from the World Resources Institute in 2017 reveals that the world’s top three emitters of greenhouse gases, namely China, the European Union and the US, contribute more than half of the total global emissions while six of the top 10 emitters are developing countries. 

The World Economic Forum recognises that carbon emissions and developing countries being lifted out of extreme poverty are linked. An increase in carbon emissions observed over 30 years shows that poverty has been reduced within East Asia and Pacific and South Asia, while sub-Saharan Africa has, during the same time period, reduced their emissions and almost doubled the number of people living in poverty.

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Moreover, The Paris Agreement acknowledges that the efforts toward reducing carbon emissions will be common but not equal among developed and developing countries. The fairness of these contributions will be determined by national circumstances so that there will be equity in the responses and responsibilities to address climate change. This means that developing countries will be allowed to emit more carbon until they have developed enough that they no longer need to rely on carbon-intensive industries. 

However, data compiled by the World Resources Institute shows that since 2000, 21 developing countries have reduced annual emissions while simultaneously growing their economies, indicating that the decoupling of economic growth with emissions is possible.

Similarly, The Low Carbon Index found that several G20 countries have reduced their economies’ carbon intensity while maintaining GDP growth, including countries classified as ‘developing’, such as China, India, South Africa and Mexico. 

While global carbon emissions have nevertheless been rising exponentially over the past decade, the International Energy Agency reported three years of flat emissions globally, from 2014 to 2016, as the global economy grew. A study conducted in 2017 investigated whether renewable energy has anything to do with this decoupling. The findings indicated that the nations that generated more electricity from renewable resources had lower carbon emissions overall, illustrating that renewable energy is able to support economic growth while reducing emissions. 

Clean Economic Growth for Sustainable Development

According to the Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century’s (REN21) yearly overview of the global state of renewable energy, it made up 24.5% of global electricity generation in 2016. This went up to 26.5% in 2017, but by the end of 2018, it had gone down to 26.2%. While the adoption of renewable energy is steadily increasing, it is not enough to have a significant impact in the long term and needs to be adopted on a much larger scale. 

According to an International Energy Agency report, Africa has the richest solar resources but has installed only 5 GW of solar photovoltaics (PV), less than 1% of global capacity. Aiming to provide electricity for everyone on the continent would require a significant increase in electricity generation, with only 43% of Africans currently having a reliable power supply. According to the report, electricity demand on the continent will more than double by 2040.

The report indicates that with the right policies, Africa can meet the demand by relying on renewable energy, with solar energy having the potential to be its top renewable energy source, exceeding hydropower. That renewable energy is now the cheapest source of energy generation makes this all the more possible. “A focus on energy efficiency can support economic growth while curbing the increase in energy demand,” the report says. 

Africa’s endeavour to meet its energy needs in a renewable way while providing its inhabitants with a good quality of life should serve as inspiration for other developing nations.

There is evidently a huge opportunity for developing countries to generate energy sustainably. Renewable energy sources deliver economic benefits without the risks of fossil fuels; such benefits include creating more job opportunities in the energy sector and achieving energy independence.

Developing Countries Cannot Afford Renewable Energy

However, there are significant barriers that prevent developing countries from adopting renewable energy plans. Decarbonisation is often not a priority for less developed countries compared to economic growth and poverty alleviation. Many of these countries struggle with gaps in technical and financial expertise, a lack of resources and poor governance. 

Creating lowest-emission or renewable energy strategies shaped to each country’s unique circumstances is vital to maintaining and encouraging growth while reducing emissions. 

Developing countries need to implement policies that shift the economy away from carbon-intensive industries. These should be coordinated at a global level to ensure a worldwide shift towards an equitable and environmentally responsible future. 

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Antarctica experienced unprecedented heat this summer, with a heatwave that began in late spring in the Antarctic Peninsula and circumnavigated the continent over the next four months. Since the late 19th century, the planet has warmed by roughly 0.8°C. Scientists predict that the Earth’s temperature may increase by 3-5°C by the end of the century. This poses a massive problem for the fastest-warming regions on Earth, one of which is the Antarctic Peninsula. What does it mean when the coldest place on Earth heats up?

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While isolated from the rest of the world, Antarctica drives the global ocean conveyor belt, a constantly moving system of deep-ocean circulation which transfers oceanic heat around the planet; Antarctica demonstrates the patterns of change that we can expect to see in other parts of the world.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Esperanza research base on the Antarctic Peninsula reported a temperature of 18.4°C on February 6, the hottest on record for the continent, which was eclipsed three days later, when a nearby research station recorded a temperature of 20.75°C, the continent’s first time to exceed 20°C in recorded history. 

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What Caused the Heatwave in Antarctica?

The Casey Station recorded a heatwave from January 23 to 26; on January 24, the maximum temperature was 9.3°C, almost 7°C above the Station’s 30-year mean for the month.

The arrival of warm, moist air amid this weather brought rain to the Davis Research Station in the normally cold desert of the Vestfold Hill. These conditions spurred meltwater pools and surface streams on local glaciers. These, along with melting snowbanks, contributed to high-flowing rivers and flooding lakes.

Antarctica Melting Rate

Further, the amount of ice flowing from the Thwaites Glacier, one of the biggest culprits in rising sea levels, has nearly doubled over the last three decades. A 2018 study reveals that ice shelf collapse from 1992 to 2017 increased the Antarctic Peninsula ice loss rate from 7 to 33 billion tons a year. 

In January, researchers recorded what they consider to be the biggest widespread melting of the George VI ice shelf, which is right beside the Antarctic Peninsula. The exact reason for this is unknown, but scientists surmise that the warm temperature likely affects other Antarctic regions as well.

Satellite images from February 2019 to February 2020 revealed that a huge iceberg from the Pine Island Glacier broke off into smaller pieces. This unprecedented heatwave in Antarctica and the sea level rise driven by the melting of the glaciers will lead to disastrous consequences. 

NASA’s Earth Observatory also reports that Antarctica’s warm temperatures began on February 5 and lasted until February 13, the period when the hottest temperature was recorded on the Esperanza base.

The weakened state of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies due to Antarctic Oscillation is a big factor as it normally shields warm weather from being transported from Earth’s temperate regions to the Antarctic Peninsula. The polar cyclone is at its maximum intensity during the winter and it reaches its weakest during the summer, weakening the westerlies. Dry and warm foehn winds may have also contributed as they release heat into the air. 

The late Indian monsoon retreat, the most delayed it has been in 60 years, caused the water in the Indian Ocean to be warmer than usual as an effect of the ‘positive’ state of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This positive IOD may have lasted until January, also contributing to the warmer temperature in the Antarctic regions. 

High-temperature trends in the Antarctic Peninsula give a clearer depiction of the continent’s climate, which is essential in observing rising sea levels and global warming conditions. An increase in these trends will cause further melting of the glaciers which intensifies extreme events brought about by the climate crisis.

According to WMO Deputy Secretary-General Elena Manaenkova, every seemingly insignificant degree of global warming will affect food security, access to clean water, species extinction and economic productivity. In addition to this, Pacific Island nations, such as Kiribati and Samoa, and coastal communities will most likely be displaced.

A paper by the WWF says that a 4°C increase in global temperature would melt nearly all the glaciers on Earth. Ocean warming may have caused more than half of Antarctica’s total ice loss during the last few years, especially in the eastern Antarctic Peninsula.

“It is worth repeating once again that we are the first generation to fully understand climate change and the last generation to be able to do something about it,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

Since the 19th century, the global average sea level has increased by over 15cm. Concrete and realistic plans by global leaders paired with transformative climate action would address the current climate crisis. These events highlight how interconnected our climate systems are, from the surface to the stratosphere and from the monsoon tropics to the southernmost continent. An unprecedented heatwave in Antarctica is a sign of things to come for the rest of the planet and to avoid irreversible and devastating impacts, there is no better time to act than the present.

Featured image by: Daniel Enchev

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The climate crisis is creating a world of mass displacements due to rising sea levels and swaths of agricultural land rendered useless because of erosion, land disputes and droughts, among others. The world is not ready for the sheer scale of the displacements that will occur over the coming decades, but how can it be better prepared for these ‘climate refugees’? 

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Definition of Climate Change Refugee

A research report published by the Othering & Belonging Institute at UC Berkeley defines climate refugees as “individuals who are forcibly displaced (within or beyond their nation-state boundaries) by short- and long-term natural disasters and environmental degradation precipitated or exacerbated by the climate crisis.” 

However, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) does not endorse the term ‘climate refugee’ and considers ‘persons displaced in the context of disasters and climate change’ to be more precise. The term itself is merely descriptive, and it is not an official status that would protect people under international refugee law. Some groups use the terms ‘climate migrant’ or ‘‘environmental migrant’ instead.

A family crosses the flooded streets of Pakistan (Source: Asia Development Bank).

In 2013, Ioane Teitiota applied for protection in New Zealand, citing rising sea levels as a threat to his and his family’s lives. Teitiota is originally from the Pacific island state of Kiribati, a nation at risk of becoming the first country to sink due to rising sea levels. His application for refugee status was denied, and so he and his family were forced to return to Kiribati in 2015. Teitiota consequently filed a complaint with the UNHRC. 

Teitiota says that the climate crisis made it difficult to access safe drinking water and that he faced land disputes. He argued that because his home island of South Tarawa is expected to become uninhabitable in the next 10 or 15 years, his and his family’s lives are at risk. 

In January, the UNHRC upheld New Zealand’s judgement against Teitiota. The committee concluded that because Kiribati will only become uninhabitable in 10 to 15 years, this ‘could allow for intervening acts by the republic of Kiribati, with the assistance of the international community, to take affirmative measures to protect and, where necessary, relocate its population’. 

However, the committee also ruled that the climate crisis could ‘expose individuals to a violation of their rights’ which could prohibit states under international law (articles 6 and 8 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which secures a person’s right to life) from sending climate refugees back to their home countries. 

Although Kiribati’s present condition was not considered to pose an immediate threat to life, the UN’s decision recognises that the number of people seeking asylum as a result of the climate crisis will keep rising in the coming years. The committee said, “Given that the risk of an entire country becoming submerged under water is such an extreme risk- the conditions of life in such a country may become incompatible with the right to life with dignity before the risk is realised.”

Millions of people are expected to be displaced by the climate crisis as sea levels rise, swaths of land become uninhabitable and natural disasters become more severe and frequent. The World Bank’s 2018 Groundswell Report predicts that 143 million people in South Asia, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa could become climate refugees by 2050.

The Environmental Justice Foundation reports that climate change has been displacing an average of 21.7 million people annually since 2008. It adds that 95% of human displacement happens in developing countries. 

Further, a study by Climate Central shows that around 300 million people will be vulnerable to annual flooding by 2050, potentially reaching 480 million by 2100. 110 million people today live on land that is below the high tide line, and by 2050, more than 150 million people’s homes could be permanently below it.

Many Pacific Island nations are threatened by global warming with their populations being in close proximity to the coast. Research shows that excluding Papua New Guinea, 97% of Pacific residents reside within 10 kilometres of the coast. For the nations of Tokelau and Tuvalu, all of the population live within a kilometre of the ocean.

Low-lying nations are already experiencing the effects of rising sea levels. Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced that the country’s capital will relocate to Borneo, as the current capital, Jakarta, is the fastest-sinking city in the world; researchers predict that 95% of North Jakarta will be submerged by 2050. 

According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, there were 18.8 million new disaster-related internal displacements recorded in 2017. Most disaster displacements linked to natural hazards and the impacts of climate change is internal, with those affected remaining within their national borders. However, displacement across borders also occurs, and may be interrelated with situations of conflict or violence. A study found that the European Union may have around 449 000 climate-induced asylum applications by 2100.

The response time to sea level rise is not rapid, and the effects will be felt over a long time span. “It takes time for ice sheets to melt so that the resulting sea level rise will continue for hundreds to thousands of years after we’re done emitting carbon,” said Peter Clark, a climate scientist from Oregon State University.

Climate Central states that greatly cutting global carbon emissions would limit sea level rise, predicting that the number of people threatened by annual flooding may be reduced by 20 million by 2100.

The UN Refugee Agency is steadfast in their mission of protecting the rights of refugees and displaced individuals. Since 1950, they work towards providing refuge for people fleeing from violence or disasters. The organisation offers assistance for stateless people who have been forced to leave their homes.

In late 2013, Typhoon Haiyan displaced 4 million people and killed 6 300 Filipinos. The UN Refugee Agency continued their emergency response and humanitarian assistance to attend to the needs of those affected by the tropical storm. The term ‘climate refugee’ may be a misnomer, but it rightfully describes the urgency of climate-related displacements that individuals face.

The UN judgement is the first of its kind in recognising the right to claim refuge because of the climate crisis. While not binding, the judgement puts pressure on international policymakers to take serious climate action as more people are set to seek asylum from the effects of the climate crisis. It emphasises that countries have a legal responsibility to protect people whose lives are threatened by the climate crisis and deporting these individuals would violate their right to life. 

Development of a new legally binding, multilateral agreement to provide a framework for the necessary response to climate migration and climate refugees is urgently needed. 

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According to the Center for Biological Diversity, the expansion of human population and consumption has increased species extinction by more than 1,000 times the natural rate. 

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This is a conservative estimate because of the large numbers of species still unknown to science, and there are uncertainties in predicting future extinctions given increased habitat destruction and the spread of invasive species and diseases.

The findings of the study revealed that the extinction rate could have been 20% higher were it not for active conservation efforts.

The Effects of Human Expansion

Human expansion has always affected the environment– animals have been hunted and domesticated and plants used and eaten since the beginning of humanity. The rate of species extinction is bound to rise continuously as population and human consumption grows; the UN expects that the world population will increase by 2 billion people within 30 years. Concerns have been raised for decades about whether global food production can keep up, and global waste is set to triple by 2100. 

A report by the WWF says that the main drivers of biodiversity loss include the overexploitation of species, agriculture and land conversion. The report adds that wildlife populations have suffered a 60% drop in just over 40 years, driven by the rapid increase in human consumption and demand for energy, land and water. 

The least developed countries have suffered the greatest land degradation, and it is these countries who depend on their natural resources the most. The disappearance of varieties and breeds of domesticated plants and animals make agroecosystems less resilient against the climate crisis and agricultural pests.

In the last 25 years, the risk of species extinction has worsened by almost 10%. At present, one million plant and animal species are at risk of extinction; biodiversity is declining faster than ever before in the history of humanity. 

Humans have altered 75% of the Earth’s land surface and 66% of its oceans. The welfare of humans is reliant on the survival of other species as biodiversity loss affects global food security, clean water and other vital natural services, like pollination.

A study that discusses how human expansion has impacted Earth’s biomass distribution shows a rapid increase in domesticated livestock biomass, affected by humans’ dietary choices. 60% of all mammals on Earth are livestock while 70% of all birds are domesticated poultry. Global biomass of marine mammals has decreased fivefold due to whaling and exploitation and the total plant biomass has decreased almost twofold since before human civilisation.

Some experts believe that we are now living in the ‘Anthropocene’ epoch, arguing that the Holocene is outdated. This new era is characterised by human beings being the driving force behind ecological change, as opposed to something like an asteroid impact.

A panel of scientists voted in May 2019 to designate this new epoch to mark the profound ways in which humans have altered the planet. The decision, by the Anthropocene Working Group (AWG), marks a step towards formally defining a new point in the geologic record. The group agreed that the Anthropocene started in the mid-20th century when a rapidly rising human population accelerated the pace of industrial production and the use of agricultural chemicals.

In 2021, a formal proposal will be submitted to the International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS), the scientific body concerned with global geological and geochronological matters, after which the executive committee of the International Union of Geological Sciences will formally declare the new geological epoch.

The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services reports that the global goals of conservation and sustainability cannot be met at the current rate and may only be achieved ‘through transformative changes across economic, social, political and technological factors’. Changes like reducing food waste, strengthening the enforcement of environmental laws, and increasing farming productivity without using more land will help make the Earth more sustainable. 

International Cooperation

There are already existing key international frameworks that target enhanced biodiversity such as the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals and the Convention on Biological Diversity’s Strategic Plan for Biodiversity. Collectively, these frameworks emphasise the need to ensure that both nature and humans thrive, but not at the expense of the other’s decline. Aside from global visions, national and local initiatives to protect biodiversity also exist, like Ireland’s National Biodiversity Action Plan and Japan’s National Biodiversity Strategy. These national initiatives address the current global biodiversity situation and acknowledge how their countries play a role.

However, Sandra M. Díaz, an ecologist from the National University of Córdoba in Argentina, says that environmental policies are not enough. She says that biodiversity considerations must always be at the forefront of concerns in any trade and infrastructure decision-making.

These programs and proposals must go beyond global projections and scenarios to reverse biodiversity decline. According to the Living Planet Report 2018, conservation efforts such as protected areas are still vital, but actions must be taken to address the causes of species extinction. Concrete measures to accomplish the global goals must  accommodate the needs of the growing population while taking into account the effects of the climate crisis.

Featured image by: Flickr

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