July 11 is World Population Day, a United Nations observance day which seeks to raise awareness of population issues. There are many myths and misconceptions about population trends and their significance — let’s explore the facts.
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Myth 1: Our population has already stopped growing
Due to countless headlines about declining birth rates, many believe our global population has already stopped growing, and some even believe it is shrinking. This is not true. While approximately half of all countries now have fertility rates (the number of live births per woman) at or below the replacement level of 2.1, the global rate still stands at 2.3. We passed the 8 billion milestone in November 2022, and the United Nations projects that our population will keep growing until the 2080s, likely peaking above 10 billion, with no significant decline this century.
Myth 2: Underpopulation is a greater threat than overpopulation
Politicians and economists fret about low or no population growth because this leads to population aging and a smaller pool of consumers and taxpayers. Tech billionaire Elon Musk went as far as claiming that low birth rates present “a much bigger risk to civilization than global warming.”
Population aging is an inevitable step towards a sustainable future, and while it does present challenges, these can be lessened in very beneficial ways, such as through investment in preventive healthcare and child welfare to maximize the number of productive members of society. Our planet is finite — failing to rein in our unhealthy addiction to infinite population and economic growth can only lead to disaster.
You might also like: How Does Overpopulation Affect Sustainability? Challenges and Solutions
Myth 3: There is plenty of space on Earth for more people
A surprisingly widespread argument is that there is enough room for many more people because our entire world population could fit into the state of Texas. Human Tetris is an amusing thought experiment but “fitting” into an area is not the same as living, let alone thriving there. At the very least, everyone needs water, food, shelter, and basic services such as education, sanitation, and healthcare. We already use almost half of the Earth’s habitable land just for agriculture — humanity needs a lot more space than just the size of our bodies.
Myth 4: Overconsumption, not population growth, is the real problem
Some argue that environmental issues are entirely driven by overconsumption of resources and excessive lifestyles, rather than population increase. Consumerism in wealthy nations like the United States is undoubtedly a major cause of climate change, resource depletion, biodiversity loss, and pollution, but it’s just half of the problem. Our impact on the environment is a product of how many of us there are and how much each of us consumes.
In countries where individuals’ environmental footprints are still small, population pressure is often the primary driver of nature loss, and while North America and Europe are responsible for the majority of historical emissions that have precipitated the climate crisis, populous China and India are now the first and third biggest national emitters, respectively.
According to the Global Footprint Network, if we achieve a population of 7.7 billion by 2050 instead of the 9.7 billion we are headed towards, we could move Earth Overshoot Day – the day on which humanity has used up all the resources the planet can regenerate in a year – back by 49 days, which makes it the second most powerful of their proposed solutions, after decarbonizing our economies. An analysis of all available climate solutions by Project Drawdown found that slowing population growth by removing barriers to family planning and girls’ education would prevent around 69 gigatons of CO2 by 2050, representing the third most effective action to limit warming to 2C, after cutting food waste and adopting plant-based diets.
More on the topic: What Is Earth Overshoot Day?
Myth 5: We can’t solve the population problem ethically
A huge misconception is that ending population growth can only be achieved through coercion. The most effective solution, as mentioned above, is the empowerment of women and girls. Wherever women have access to family planning and reproductive health services, and are free to pursue educational and career opportunities, fertility rates plummet. Unfortunately, there are still an estimated 257 million women globally with an unmet need for modern contraception, and almost half of women in developing regions have no decision-making power over their own bodies.
Advancing women’s right to choose what happens to their bodies and lives is morally essential in its own right, but sadly chronically underfunded. By demonstrating how empowering women is also key to achieving sustainability, we can leverage much-needed investment.
